In 2023 there were more than 6,000 air alerts in Ukraine. Last month alone, Russia launched some 624 drones carrying explosives, according to official sources. On Dec. 29, more than 120 Russian missiles and drones targeted towns across the country, killing 44 people. It was the deadliest attack on civilians in Kyiv since the beginning of the war.

In all of December, there was just one night without an attack.

Russia’s strikes increased as attempts to authorize more funding for Ukraine stalled in the U.S. Congress and in Europe. Since the fall, Kyiv’s western allies have reportedly been quietly pushing for negotiations to end the war. By the end of December, Vladimir Putin was also reportedly signaling that he, too, was ready to make a deal.

A Russian political observer I talked to suggested that these signals from Mr. Putin were calibrated to capitalize on the sense of gloom among Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the United States; to further delay military aid when Ukraine was already low on ammunition and vulnerable, and to allow Russia to further press its advantage.

But Ukrainians already know that when it comes to Mr. Putin, one must not trust what he says, but watch what he does. From Kyiv it’s clear that Mr. Putin is not preparing to offer anything that Ukrainians could agree to — and he knows it. His plans are occupation, devastation and destruction.

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