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Idk the science of it but only what I have observed. I live somewhere where it is ~20°F in winter and ~85°F in the summer. In winter I avg around 21MPG and in the summer I avg 23MPG.
with such a cold weather, the engine is going to take a while to reach ideal operational temperature, so running un-efficiently for a while. MPG change will be more noticeable if your commutes are short