Summary
Tesla’s European sales are plummeting, with Germany seeing a 60% drop despite strong EV growth. Similar declines hit Norway, Sweden, and France.
While some blame the Osborne effect—buyers delaying purchases for a refreshed Model Y—Musk’s endorsement of Germany’s far-right AfD may also be repelling customers.
Online backlash has linked Tesla to fascist imagery. In contrast, UK sales fell only 7.8%, suggesting political factors play a role.
With strong domestic EV competition in Europe, Tesla’s reputation crisis could further hurt demand.
Their batteries may not be special, but if they can scale to what they were promising a few years ago (which is a much bigger “if” than it used to be), their battery business could easily surpass BYD’s, which could justify its current market cap on its own (but not much higher).
I’ve got mixed feelings on FSD. I think it’s nearly “solved” for places with nice climate, but I think there’s a lot of work needed to deal with inclement weather like snow and slush and even heavy rain. I don’t think any company has any idea how to solve that issue, so they’re just pushing it down the road until someone else solves it first.
How would they scale it? I don’t think they have the factories even if they figure out the process. Last time I looked they had 2 (or 3?) locations.
Their factories in Nevada, Texas, and China all have a lot of extra space and/or land for expansion. They’ve also been considering building more factories in Mexico, another one in Europe, and possibly SE Asia, though it’s unclear whether any of those are going to materialize - especially with the current downturn in sales.
But that’s only 3 factories that they do have, building new ones would take years, they have lost the first mover advantage if they ever have one.