cross-posted from: https://lemmy.world/post/26446295
Critics say the potential cuts in the US diplomatic footprint coupled with the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAid) that provided billions of dollars worth of aid globally risk undermining American leadership and leaves a dangerous vacuum for adversaries like China and Russia to fill.(…)
Trump and Musk say the US government is too big and American taxpayer-funded aid has been spent in a wasteful and fraudulent way. (…)
Leipzig, Hamburg and Dusseldorf in Germany, Bordeaux and Strasbourg in France, and Florence in Italy were among a list of smaller consulates that the state department is considering shutting down, three officials said, adding that could still change as some staff were making a case for them to stay open.
Risk undermining American leadership?
That already happened. America has significantly diminished standing on the world stage. Leadership requires strength, stability and honour. Leadership is about inspiring others to follow. Trump is seen on the world stage as a problem. His strength, as projected to the rest of the world, is based solely on the machinery and heritage behind him that he is seeking to dismantle. Ironically he said to Zelenskyy, “I made your a tough guy”. Trump is only a tough guy because the US military stands behind him. Stability and honour are clearly gone. The US government won’t even honour it’s own domestic contracts with US citizens and organisations, tariffs or on them off and the stock market is unstable as a result.
Any government dealing with the United States currently has to weigh up whether the deals made will be honoured. Many of them will choose to believe, based on the credit America has built up over centuries, that they will. But we all know that Trump has no qualms about cancelling a contract he decides he doesn’t like.
Over time the EU will move to be self sufficient. America will find it’s influence and GDP diminished as a consequence.
You cannot agree to buy fighter jets from a country that may threaten to change the deal part way through, or remove support. You cannot make trade deals with a country that might decide in 2 years that they didn’t negotiate as well as they could and refuse to hold up their end.
The only reason anyone is still listening to America right now is because the memory of what they used to represent is still so fresh. There is hope that even though Trump says and does one thing, it is just rhetoric and the ocean taker that is the US government cannot be turned so quickly. These hopes assume due progress would be followed.
Seems like USA is going to fade to irrelevancy, and Trump is speedrunning that game. Even if a sane politician gets elected next time, the damage has already been done. The rest of the world is already moving along without America.
I think Trump had envisaged allies increasing defense funding and using it to buy weapons from him. I think the reality is that European defense contractors are about to expand significantly. While there may be an initial reliance on purchasing military equipment from America, the situation demands western allies reduce their reliance on it. It would be good for the defence industry in e.g. The UK and France if the increased spending bolsters their own economies. It’s not like there haven’t been large projects shared between European partners before. The eurofighter typhoon, the upcoming tempest or the FCAS project mean that Europe would not need to buy F35s or whatever is being offered by America in the future. The increase in funding may accelerate these projects bringing them to service much sooner. That is just aircraft. There are plenty of other areas that European defence contractors can and do collaborate.
The propaganda that American technology is the best, is a bit of an illusion based on the friendships and collaborations with other partners. We don’t need America to have the best weapons. It was just always convenient to have them as a partner and friend who was willing to contribute so heavily. It was perhaps unfair that everyone allowed the US to be the backup but I think that particular aspect of their standing on the world stage is going to change significantly. I don’t think America will become irrelevant, but they will very likely lose a lot of their influence. In the past the US may have been able to force through their agenda with the UN but in future I think that will not be so easy for them. With a big shift away from American products and services which I think is under way, alternatives will become available that challenge their dominance and this will ultimately harm their economy. When their economy is less productive, investors move elsewhere which amplifies the effect. It will take an enormously charismatic president to repair the goodwill and as yet the American public does not seem to favour candidates or that mould. They are more interested in short term stock market gains than long term economic stability.
Thank you for this analysis.
Just as daddy Putin ordered.
