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Cake day: December 23rd, 2023

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  • Germany is just hit by a combination of different factors. Some are bad luck, some are bad politics, but none of them are incredibly dangerous. The gas crisis is solved and gas prices are already at a fairly normal level again, so consumers will get more money from lower energy prices. Currently German has a lot of strikes. Obviously that slows down the economy right now, but higher pay means workers spend more money, which increases consumption, which is currently slowing down the German economy. Global manufacturing is down due to lower demand. This hits Germany badly, due to not only having a large manufacturing sector(manufacturing as a share of GDP is nearly twice as high for Germany then France for example), but also due to Germany being a large manufacturer of factory grade machines. Obviously manufacturing companies invest less, with low demand, so the sector is hit especially hard. A domestic bad policy is the debt brake, which leads to the German government investing too little in Germany.

    However the German labor market is strong with low unemployment. Germany can easily borrow a lot of money, if it chooses too and the current “crisis” is about a tenth of the decline Germany had in the great recession of 2009. So chances are this is going to sort itself out and to a large part already has done so. It most certainly is not going to hurt other EU countries especially hard.


  • There have not been any official Leopard1 deliveries for months now. We know for a fact, that there are a large number of Ukrainians officially being trained in Germany on them for what looks to be way too long and we also now that there are significantly more actually fully repaired and refurbished Leopard1s in Germany factories. There was no official delivery of Leopard1 for over four months now.

    Chances are that the list is incomplete. It is meant to show a lot of weapons are being send to Ukraine and is a good tool to miss lead Russia.








  • Germany has been calling on Israel to only target Hamaz since the start of the invasion. However destroying Hamaz requires the use of weapons and civilan casulties were somewhat expected. However Germany has been calling for a ceasefire for months now and has been clear that it does not approve of Israel invading Rafah. The food situation is getting to the point, that is makes 30k civilan deaths look like a joke. Hence Germany is dropping in food and other aid, while working on setting up naval supply of the Gaza Strip. That is after increasing aid for the Gaza strip in recent months on a near regualr bases. The problem being getting it into Gaza.

    The difference this time is that Scholz is going to Israel to talk about what is going on in Gaza and is this time a lot more critical. Lets see.



  • We need to destroy Russias ability to threaten the EU and remove Putin and any other similar leader from power in Russia. That should be the goal of the EU and not to go into a full scale war with Russia. Seriously Putin is not winning that war. The Russian civilian economy is shrinking fast, Russias war reserves are depleting, oil income is falling, soldiers are being lost on a massive scale with a demogrophics, which does not allow for that, and Russias weapons reserves from Soviet times are falling. Russia has two or three years of full scale war in it. The only thing we need to do is to keep Ukraine in the fight, while destroying as much of Russia as possible.


  • The phaseout of fossil fuel cars required a qualified majority. That means that as long as two out of Germany, France, Poland, Spain and Italy are for it, it is going to stay. Also some other votes are needed, but that is basically it.

    Also the CDU needs a coalition partner and that means either SPD or Greens, which voted for the phase out, or AFD at which point the problem of smoke from cars is the least problem in Germany.









  • For anybody wondering. France has a strategy of strategic ambiguity. That means they always leave all options open, so they can change their minds and also have the enemy guessing. That is why their are no red lines. It is fundamentally against French strategy. However it does not mean that France sends soldiers to Ukraine or anything like that.

    A great example why it makes a lot of sense is Scholz. He was initially against sending Marder, Leopard, artillery and a lot more weapon systems, but later and not even too much later changed his mind. This did piss of countries like Poland and obviously Ukraine for no reason, create bad press and it means that Scholz saying no is somewhat of a temporary thing, which weakens his position in negotitations. If he had said that he has not decided to send those weapons to Ukraine, the entire time, then he would have had a lot less of an issue.

    So please do not read too much into this. For France what matters, is if they say they are going to do something., not maybes.