Labour could be swept into power with a landslide of more than 400 seats at the next general election, according to the latest YouGov mega poll.
The survey of 18,000 people predicts Sir Keir Starmer’s party will win a parliamentary majority of 154 - almost double what the Conservatives achieved with Boris Johnson in 2019.
The poll forecasts Labour will win 403 seats, a gain of 201, while the Tories will crash to just 155 seats - a loss of 210.
If correct, the result would be a worse defeat for the Conservatives than under Sir John Major in 1997, when the rise of Sir Tony Blair’s New Labour left them with just 165 MPs.
Key Conservatives projected to lose their seats include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, cabinet ministers Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt and former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
I think it will largely depend on what state the Conservative Party is in by 2029. They are going to be facing a lot of internal turmoil and a dearth of political talent.
If the party is still in visible disarray and/or in the hands of one the crazier fringes, an incumbent Labour will likely weather that storm with a reduced majority. If they can manage another Cameron-esque reinvention in the space of one term they will fair better.
I wouldn’t discount the presence of Reform, or even the Lib Dem’s either. This is the most at risk our two party system has been for some time.