You jest, but I do think that violence and papal assassination are absolutely on the table here. I suspect we’re going to enter a second warring popes period or simply have a tense situation where both sides claim to hold a pope. Most likely Francis will fall left or liberal. Benedict just died otherwise I could see him providing legitimacy to the conservatives. But enough cardinals will probably split to pick a new pope.

If the conservatives get the Vatican it’ll probably be through Italian intervention and I would suspect that the liberals/left leaning will set up in France, South America, Ireland, or attempt to bargain for a square mile or so of Jerusalem.

If the liberals/left get the Vatican it’ll likely be thanks to pope Francis and I suspect the conservatives will set up in the United States, elsewhere in Italy, Spain, or attempt to get a small portion of Jerusalem.

There’s also a chance both are theologically stubborn enough to insist that their bishop of Rome is their leader and thus they either split the Vatican or attempt to get more of Rome.